The Ides of March
Plus some good vibes to combat all those Shakespearean bad vibes.
Welcome to the Scuffed Newsletter, a weekly email guide to the U.S. men's national soccer team. Sign up free to get it in your inbox every Friday. This week we look ahead to the March window.
Judgment Days
- Belz
We’re now booked for a trio of certified cage matches in March, with World Cup qualification on the line.
First, Mexico, in Mexico City. Much like the U.S., El Tri has been grinding its way to the results it needs in order to feel reasonably comfortable going into the final three-game window of World Cup qualifying. On one hand, Mexico suffers from the same final third stiffness that plagues the USMNT, we ultimately ran them off the pitch in Cincinnati, and you’d think we could steal a point. On the other hand, Mexico and Tata Martino have everything to prove, you have to think they’re underperforming their talent to this point, and it’s the Azteca, the greatest cathedral of football in the northern half of the western hemisphere. I have no prediction.
Then, we play Panama in Orlando. This has been circled by many of us as a winnable game that should qualify us for the World Cup. That’s still basically the story, but Panama is pretty good! Much better than most people expected. On the eye test they’re head and shoulders above everyone other than Canada, the U.S. and Mexico, and they beat the U.S. and drew Mexico in Panama City, and it took a late, soft penalty call in favor of dive-adjacent Diego Lainez for Mexico to beat Panama at the Azteca last week. Thank goodness for that result, but Panama went toe-to-toe with the traditional giant of Concacaf for much of that game, and they won’t go down without a dog fight in Orlando. I predict we win.
And then we go to Costa Rica for the final match of World Cup qualifying. If we don’t have a World Cup berth wrapped up by then — most likely by getting a draw at Mexico and an absolutely crucial win in Orlando — the night of March 30 will be more than USMNT fans can bear.
It still looks pretty good, so long as we beat Panama in central Florida, but those of us prone to Bad Vibes will remember how good it looked at about this point in qualifying in 2017.
The player pool that Berhalter will deploy in March is set at this point. There won’t be any new entrants before the end of qualifying. Hopefully, after March, we can get back to the fun exercise of dreaming about fringe players ascending at their clubs and breaking into the national team to solve its various problems. But for now, we clench every muscle in our bodies and brace for the…wait for it…Ides of March.
A few quick programming notes.
Watke is stepping back from the newsletter to focus on his video work and monetizing that, so don’t expect his especially good contributions here for a while, at least. We miss him, but it can’t be helped.
Here at Scuffed, we are going to start making the Monday Review a patron-only episode, starting on Feb. 21. I’ll explain that on the next Monday Review and then that’ll be the reality going forward. We will continue to make the first Monday Review of each month available in the public feed to remind everyone of its existence. If you want to subscribe to get ahead of this paywalling, go here.
We will be in Orlando and are planning a lot of good stuff. We’re closing in on rental of a futsal court near the stadium for a couple hours of five-a-side, and Greg has ordered training bibs in three colors for the occasion. We’re also working on a tailgating location near the stadium. Vince, Greg and I will all be there. Let it be a night of celebration, please.
Have a great weekend. There’s plenty of soccer to watch, as you will see directly below.
Weekend Playbill
Discord Download/Midweek Minutes
- Coach Beard
Are you still going to twitter for your USMNT takes and insights? Well, here’s what you could be reading instead.
For instance, analytics. This is part of a great conversation about how conversion rates may be skewing perceptions of qualifying up to this point. The USMNT’s results are worse than their underlying analytics:
Canada did, after all, score a goal that I’ve watched about 19 times and can only with 45% confidence tell you what happened.
Here’s some more excellent nuance on how xG difference is not created equal:
How about transfer talk? Matt Turner’s transfer to Arsenal may mean another USMNT goalkeeper in a backup role, but here’s why it makes a ton of sense for Matt Turner:
Vibes? Resident vibe leader Tara, not content with just a pod shoutout, upped the good vibes to historic levels with a good vibes Valentine’s Day shoutout from celebration vibes merchant Walker Zimmerman. Did I mention the VIBES ARE GOOD?
Humor? Well, nerd humor? If you’ve got a better submission for replacing low-energy “yanks” you know where to find me:
————
Thanks for reading. If you have a question you’d like us to consider answering here or on the podcast, ask it using this form.
Please subscribe to the podcast: Apple | Spotify | Google | Stitcher | Podcast Addict
And consider supporting us on Patreon, after which you can join the Discord.
Have a great weekend.