Soccer epistemology, Pulisic scores, Reyna as false 9
Plus, some sneaky-favorable comparisons for Josh Sargent.
At the end of our conversation on soccer analytics, John Muller asked me what soccer stats I use and how, and I didn’t have a good answer. Put on the spot, I mumbled something about “network effects,” by which I meant I listen to people I like and trust, and ignore people I don’t know.
Mostly I’ve gotta see the footage and draw my own conclusions. Even advanced statistics, as Muller explained, lack context and may include some crucial bit of context that renders them less meaningful. Like life itself, soccer is fluid, and a player’s performance is influenced by many powerful variables.
And national team analysis can never be as rigorous as, say, Premier League analysis, because the sample is so much smaller. As Claudio Reyna pointed out in his excellent appearance on Grant Wahl’s show, the national team is fluid too. It’s different groups of players every camp, trying to gel for three-game windows.
The truth is I rarely use data to understand the national team and its player pool, and what I do use, I use in a hodgepodge way. Going through John Herdman’s tactical presentation with Greg two weeks ago and having to face my own lack of sophistication under Muller’s (very gentle) cross-examination makes me think I need to work on this. I gotta get more serious about using data to understand the game.
I’ll work on it. But when this last qualifying window arrives, it’s going to fall by the wayside.
For these do-or-die matches against Mexico, Panama and Costa Rica, my mind will be set to fandom. Can’t help it. I don’t know anything. Neither do you. How will we look without Weston McKennie? Haven’t looked good without him yet! Who will Gregg Berhalter start in his place? Gio Reyna might be healthy, might not. Did Luca de la Torre do enough for Berhalter to give him the keys? Who can say? Which striker will Berhalter pull out of the hat? Which striker should he pull out of the hat? I don’t know. Let’s just get 4 points, or even 3, and relax, and settle down, and get ready for some summer friendlies and a World Cup.
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- Belz
Weekend Playbill
Midweek Minutes / Discord Download
Such highs and lows for this past week's action in Europe.
Christian Pulisic (80) scored a beautiful goal on the break in a 2-0 home win against Lille - his 6th Champion’s League goal. But it wasn’t just the goal, it was an all-around excellent performance. Playing for a superclub has its drawbacks, but this has to feel good:
Sergiño Dest (90) was also excellent — as was Barcelona — in a 4-2 away win against Napoli. The team will now progress to the Europa League round of 16, a competition which Dani Alves is not registered for. Serg may have also played himself back into Xavi’s preferred eleven, or at least pretty close to it:
Tyler Adams (n/a) came on in extra time in RB Leipzig’s 3-1 away win against Real Sociedad, also progressing to the Europa League round of 16.
Antonee Robinson (90) had two key passes and racked up some xA in Fulham’s 2-1 win over Peterborough in the Championship, maintaining their sizable nine point league lead.
Cristian Roldan (65) and Jordan Morris (60) both scored in a 5-0 drubbing in the second leg of Seattle’s tie with CD Motagua, with Roldan also adding two assists (one of them lovely, the other of the noisy variety), sending them into the CONCACAF Champions League quarter finals.
Konrad de la Fuente (8) netted his first goal for Marseille, darting in behind Qarabag FK’s ragged back line and finishing coolly with his left foot in the Europa Conference League.
The low is, of course, Weston McKennie’s reported 8-week injury in Juventus 1-1 draw at Villareal, making it possible the US goes into the final qualifying window without two of our most talented players. Gregg’s upcoming game show will be appointment TV:
The Discord is already busy with possible rotations for the next qualifying window with tough decisions to be made at CM and LB. Greg has one of them covered:
And Tim Weah trumps whatever “2” meme you saw on Tuesday by at least 2x;
- Coach Beard
Mailbag: Sargent comparisons and walk-up songs
Dave in Orange County (Reagan Country, not Disney Country) writes: Sargent is the American Timo Warner. Prove me wrong.
In one Scuffian’s opinion: Yes — hopefully!
Dave’s challenge reminds me of a similar comparison made earlier this week during the Juventus-Sevilla match where Weston McKennie was cruelly injured. A Discorder or two mentioned (not always favorably) that Josh Sargent reminded them a lot of Juve’s Alvaro Morata. Morata, not unlike Werner, has a reputation for being a hard worker and pressing machine who suffers extended bouts of Chuck Knoblauch Syndrome in front of goal.
Werner has acquired this same reputation since moving to Chelsea from RB Leipzig — a brilliant and relentless attacking player who will go for weeks laying eggs from high-xG positions.
But reputations and easy jokes don’t tell the whole story. Dave’s comparison has a lot going for it. From the moment he became a starting XI-level player at Werder Bremen, Josh Sargent has earned a reputation as a defensive machine who will make goalkeepers and center backs uncomfortable every chance he gets. And he’s done that work on teams that don’t like to have the ball and have never given him many chances to work with. And unfortunately he’s been known to bungle a decent chance or two, as he did early in a 1-0 loss to Southampton on Friday.
And he’s doing Timo Werner and Alvaro Morata-type stuff every game for 75+ minutes for a Premier League team (for now). And he’s earning comparisons to a regular starter for the UEFA Champions League winners who gets lots of minutes with Germany, and a key piece of a rebounding super club and locked-in starting striker for Spain.
We should be so lucky if Josh Sargent’s ceiling is close to the likes of Werner and Morata.
From Devin in Happy Valley: With the USMNT’s #9 struggles + Gio’s pending return + Weah’s needed spark + Weston’s form of late - is there a tactical way to put the three on the pitch together in lieu of a traditional #9 while having a flexible positional fluidity between the three of them where one is serving as the 9, one central, & one wide at any given moment?
Totally different question: Baseball players have “walk up” songs that players pick to be blared through the stadium when they’re coming up to bat. If soccer had that for each player as they walk out to the pitch, which USMNT players would have the best and worst songs (& what would they be)? And hey - would each of yours be? I’m partial to Ozzy’s Crazy Train or J Cole’s No Role Modelz
Sadly Devin’s first question has become academic for our March window. Weston will be recovering from his foot injury, and we’d be pleasantly surprised if Gio is able to make a transatlantic trip to take part in a three-match window.
Still, there’s plenty of soccer left to play in 2022, competitive or otherwise. And presuming we avoid catastrophic failure next month, there will be a few opportunities before Qatar to try some personnel tweaks to Berhalter’s 4-3-3 that lean into the strengths of our best attackers without disrupting Gregg’s overall principles too much.
Long story short, you guessed it: I am a business class passenger on the Gio Reyna False 9 Hype Train. It’s a thrilling prospect because it is one solution that gets Pulisic, Gio and Weah on the field at the same time in ways that put each player in a position to play to their highest, best and most dominant form. Pulisic gets to start from the left and cut inside, by far his most lethal role at Chelsea and arguably the USMNT going back to 2016. Weah, also right-footed, would probably prefer the left wing, but he’s competent with his left foot and isn’t afraid to bomb to the end line and fire off low right-footed passes across the face of goal.
And in a central role, Gio has the work rate and hunger for the ball that will force center backs to follow him deep into the midfield. If he can do that classic False 9 job well, he’ll consistently force fullbacks to choose between following Pulisic and Jedi on the left, and Weah and Dest on the right. That’s a scary 2v1 in itself. And giving Christian and Tim more yards to cut inside is even scarier.
It’s an idea that only exists on paper (or on screens displaying information stored on Substack and Discord and Twitter server farms). It would take a fair bit of training along with trial and error in real games, and even then it just might not come off. But at least on paper, it makes a hell of a lot of sense.
Baseball is my first love, which means I’ve thought a lot about my personal walk up songs and what songs to incorporate into soccer. My closer walk-up music would be “Black Fire Upon Us” by Dethklok of Metalocalypse fame, and my batting music would be the opening bars of Skillet’s “Not Gonna Die.”
As for our USMNT boys, my pick for the best walk-out song, in this current moment, would have to be “Man In The Mirror” for our Hershey King Christian Pulisic. As for the worst, I suspect we would see Sebastian Lletget walk out to Becky G’s “My Man.” They Love Da Boy. We Love Da Boy. Becky G Loves Da Boy. But please. Please. No.
- Matt Mitchell, aka @MJM-borne69
(Eds. note: Please, no walk-out songs in soccer. -Belz)
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